Work it out
The starting values are an illustration, not a suggested trade or allocation.
Your inputs are not sent to a server or stored by this calculator.
Worked example
Costs change the five outcomes to 115, −65, 75, −45, and 0. Their average is 16, with two net winners, two net losers, and one flat trade.
Prepare a complete sample
Use one line per closed trade with two numbers: gross P&L, then that trade’s total costs. For example, 120,5 means a gross gain of 120 and costs of 5. Use a negative gross number for a loss. Enter all amounts in the same currency.
Omit headers and thousands separators. Commas or tabs separate columns; a decimal point separates fractional values. Up to 500 nonempty rows are accepted. Include flat trades and losses instead of selecting only memorable trades.
Classify trades after costs
Net result = gross P&L − costs. A trade is a winner only when its net result is positive. A negative net result is a loser; a zero net result is flat.
A gross gain of 3 with costs of 5 is a net loss of 2. Classifying it as a win before subtracting costs would overstate the win rate and distort average win and average loss.
Calculate realized expectancy
The sample expectancy is the sum of all net results divided by the number of trades. It is the average amount gained or lost per entered trade.
The same mean can be written as win fraction × average net win − loss fraction × average net loss magnitude. Flat trades contribute zero but remain in the denominator. This is why the win fraction and loss fraction need not add to 100%.
Walk through five trades
The default gross results are 120, −60, 80, −40, and 0. Costs are 5 on each of the first four trades and 0 on the flat trade. Net results become 115, −65, 75, −45, and 0.
Net total is 80, so realized expectancy is 16 per trade. Two wins out of five give a 40% win rate. Average net win is 95; average net loss magnitude is 55. The sample is profitable despite a win rate below half because the winners are larger.
Interpret profit factor carefully
Profit factor = total positive net results / absolute total negative net results. Here it is 190 / 110 = 1.7273. It compares aggregate gains with aggregate losses; it is not a return on capital.
When the sample has no net losses, the denominator is zero. The tool reports the ratio as undefined, not as proof of an unlimited edge. A short winning sample may simply omit conditions that generate losses.
Improve the journal before drawing a conclusion
Money-weighted averages can change when trade sizes change. This calculator does not normalize results by initial risk, holding time, or capital employed. Review comparable setups and consistent sizes separately when that distinction matters.
Keep dates, setup definitions, and whether trades were simulated in your own records. The optional CSV output reproduces the rows and net calculations; the tool does not save your journal or infer missing costs.
What this tool does not calculate
- Descriptive statistics only; no estimate of statistical confidence or future returns.
- Trade sizes and holding periods are not normalized.
- Missing trades, financing costs, or duplicated fees can materially change the result.
Common questions
Is positive expectancy proof that my next trade will make money?
No. This is the mean of the historical rows entered. A small, selected, or changing sample may not represent future outcomes.
Should I paste net P&L from my broker?
This input expects gross P&L and costs in separate columns. If a statement already reports net P&L, use that value with zero additional costs only if you intend to analyze it as already net; do not subtract the same fees twice.
Why are flat trades included in the win-rate denominator?
Each entered row is a trade. A flat trade is not a win, but it still belongs to the sample. The result states this convention explicitly.
Can I mix currencies or open trades?
No. Convert consistently before using the tool, and use closed-trade realized results. Unrealized values can change and do not belong in this closed-trade summary.
Sources & method
An original calculation tool built with AI assistance. Its method and limits are documented here, and calculation examples are checked with automated tests.
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